Brookings Papers on Economic Activity

• Higher Inflation OK Sometimes, Fed Economist Says
  September 10, 2009
  The Wall Street Journal
  John Williams, director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, says a higher inflation target could be a way to avoid a problem that the financial crisis has highlighted: Having brought interest rates down to near zero, the Fed and other central banks have effectively exhausted their main tool for supporting the economy.
• Fed's Kohn Says Rapid Increase in Rates Is Unlikely
  September 10, 2009
  Bloomberg
  Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said a sharp increase in short-term interest rates is unlikely because of low inflation and a feeble world economy. "With the global economy quite weak and inflation low, a large and rapid rise seems quite improbable," Kohn said today at a conference at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
• Fed's Kohn Defends Policies, Says Credit Risks Generally Small
  September 10, 2009
  Dow Jones
  Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, appearing at the Brookings Institution in Washington, acknowledged that the Fed did have to take on higher levels of credit risk with the rescue of American International Group Inc. (AIG), its dealings with Bear Stearns Cos., and in other instances. But while those decisions were "very uncomfortable," they were not the status quo, he said.
• U.S. Fed balance sheet growth not inflationary-study
  September 10, 2009
  Reuters
  The explosive growth in the U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet since last year will not automatically lead to higher inflation as some critics fear, a study released on Thursday found. Should the Fed lose so much money from market interventions that it requires U.S. government aid, the bank may be exposed to political pressure from Congress to keep rates low. Such a situation would lead to higher inflation, economist Ricardo Reis argues.
• Financial Skills Decline With Age
  September 10, 2009
  Wall Street Journal
  Aging athletes can wistfully point the time when their aches and pains overwhelmed the advantages of experience they'd accumulated over the years. It turns out that something similar happens with financial skills, according to a paper to be presented Thursday afternoon at the Brookings Institution.
• Banks cut borrowing from Fed; credit woes easing
  September 10, 2009
  Associated Press
  Banks trimmed their borrowing over the past week from the Federal Reserve's emergency lending facility and cut back on other programs intended to ease the financial crisis, adding to evidence that credit markets are thawing. In a weekly report issued Thursday, the Fed said banks averaged $30.4 billion in daily borrowing over the week ended Wednesday. That was down from $32.7 billion in the week ending Sept. 3.
• US FED: Kohn Downplays Risk Of Fed Dependency On Fiscal Authorities
  September 10, 2009
  Thomson Reuters
  Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn today in a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution in Washington downplayed the risk of the Federal Reserve depending on fiscal authorities to fund expenses accrued by a build up of new credit policies and payment of interest on reserves.
• Fed's Kohn says no exit for extended period
  September 10, 2009
  Reuters
  Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said on Thursday the U.S. central bank was developing tools to move away from its extremely loose monetary policy, but such an exit would not happen any time soon. "Any combination of these tools, in addition to the payment of interest on reserves, may prove very valuable when the time comes to tighten the stance of monetary policy," Kohn said in discussing a paper presented at the Brookings Institution.
• Oil Check
  June 22, 2009
  The New Yorker
  A study by James Hamilton, a macroeconomist at U.C.-San Diego, reached a startling conclusion: given the already weak state of the U.S. economy in 2007, the sharp increase in oil prices might have been enough, on its own, to tip the economy into recession, even without that year’s blowup in the credit markets.
• Explaining Crisis Responses to ‘a Skeptical Public’
  April 7, 2009
  The New York Times
  Mr. Swagel wrote the essay for a Brookings conference, and it will surely be useful to historians trying to make sense of the many unprecedented government actions taken in the last year.

• It’s a wonder anything ever gets done in Washington
  April 6, 2009
  Reuters
  I got through a chunk of Swagel’s paper on the plane on the way over to London, and I haven’t finished the whole thing yet, but there’s no doubt it provides an eye-opening view of how the Washington sausage is made. One theme running through the paper is that of tension between all manner of Washington agencies: Treasury was constantly at war not only with Congress but also with the White House, with the Fed, and with the FDIC.

• Fixing the Financial Crisis
  April 6, 2009
  CNBC
  Phil Swagel, former assistant secretary for economics under hank Paulson discusses what the government has done so far to fix the financial crisis and what still needs to be done.

• The elusive TIPS
  April 6, 2009
  The Economist
  Or is there something else at work? John Campbell, Robert Shiller, and Luis Viceira’s new paper reviews the brief history of the TIPS market. It appears that as the TIPS market developed, breakevens did reflect expected inflation.

• Did the Oil Price Boom of 2008 Cause Crisis?
  April 3, 2009
  The Wall Street Journal
  In a paper presented at the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity Thursday, University of Calif.-San Diego economist James Hamilton crunched some numbers on how consumer spending responds to rising energy prices and came to a surprising result: Nearly all of last year’s economic downturn could be attributed to the oil price shock.

• 'Chronic Disorganization' Cited in Efforts to Fix Crisis
  April 3, 2009
  The Washington Post
  The account by Phillip Swagel, Paulson's senior adviser on economic policy, is to be presented at the Brookings Institution this morning. It offers perhaps the most detailed public testimony to date about the last administration's struggles to control the rapid advance of an unexpected crisis.

• Terp-gate, revisited
  April 3, 2009
  Financial Times
  Phillip Swagel, who was the Treasury’s assistant secretary for economic policy under Paulson, is blowing that theory out of the water in a 50-page essay titled “The Financial Crisis: An Inside View“.

• The $700 billion bailout inside story
  April 3, 2009
  Salon
  Near the end of his blow-by-blow account of how Hank Paulson's Treasury Department confronted an imploding economy, Phillip Swagel, the former assistant secretary for economic policy, makes a revealing and self-serving admission:
  Treasury had to be able to explain what it was doing and how the programs fit together -- never our strength.

• Inside the Bush Treasury Department
  April 3, 2009
  Salon
  Phillip Swagel, assistant secretary for economic policy during the tenure of Hank Paulson, presented at the Brookings Institute yesterday an extraordinary behind-the-scenes blow-by-blow account detailing how the Treasury Department attempted to deal with the unfolding economic crisis in 2007 and 2008.

• Do you remember the great oil shock of 2008?
  April 3, 2009
  Salon
  Into this quagmire bravely treads U.S. San Diego economist James Hamilton, who presented the 70-page paper "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08" on Thursday at the Brookings Institution.

• Paulson Expected Criticism for Changing Course on TARP
  April 2, 2009
  Wall Street Journal, USA Today
  Mr. Swagel, in a 50-page essay to be presented Friday at the Brookings (Institution) Panel on Economic Activity, said Mr. Paulson initially saw having "the government involved in ownership of banks" as a "fundamentally bad idea," and that's why he said as much to Congress when he sought the money. He changed his mind later, and the Treasury decided to devote the money to buying bank shares.

• Tax Cuts Precede Spending Increases, Romer Argues
  April 2, 2009
  The Wall Street Journal
  The Romers, in a paper to be presented Thursday at the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, note that the "starve the beast" notion that cutting taxes is an effective way to rein in government spending has a long history. President Ronald Reagan championed it; so did Nobel laureate Milton Friedman.

• Former Treasury Official Releases Tell-All
  April 2, 2009
  The Washington Post
  A former senior Treasury Department official is shedding light into the Bush administration's response to the financial crisis. In a 50 page report published as part of the Brookings Institution's Panel on Economic Activity, Philip Swagel, who was assistant secretary of the Treasury for economic policy from 2006 until January 20, 2009, argues that political and legal constraints hemmed in the Treasury's response more than many commentators have acknowledged.

• What Was Going on Inside the Paulson Treasury?
  April 2, 2009
  The Wall Street Journal
  In the first — and not likely to be the last — lengthy behind-the-scenes account from veterans of the Bush administration, Phillip Swagel, who was assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy from December 2006 until January 2009, offers his take in a 50-page essay to be presented later this week at the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity.

• Krugman wins Nobel for economics
  October 13, 2008
  BBC News
  The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said the award recognised his analysis of trade patterns and where economic activity takes place.

• Professor and Columnist Wins Economics Nobel
  October 13, 2008
  The New York Times
  Paul Krugman, a professor at Princeton and an Op-Ed page columnist for The New York Times, was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science on Monday. In the last year he has written several times about the negative results of free trade, both in his column and in a paper he wrote for the Brookings Institution about whether trade with poor countries increases inequality in developed nations like the United States.

• Perhaps, It’s Time to Play Offense
  September 16, 2008
  The New York Times (Economic Scene)
  Late last week, as Lehman Brothers was collapsing, an all-star group of economists was meeting here to ponder the lessons of the financial crisis. The group included Donald Kohn, the vice chairman of the Fed, and Edward Lazear, the top White House economist, as well as Lawrence Summers, the former Treasury secretary, and a few dozen others…

• Housing-Price Economist Sees Market as Near Bottom
  September 12, 2008
  The Wall Street Journal
  …in a paper presented before the Brookings Institution in Washington yesterday, Mr. Case argues there is cause for optimism. He notes that of the 20 metropolitan areas covered by the Case/Shiller index, nine have shown prices slightly improving in recent months. He also says that the relationship between incomes and home prices has neared a level seen at the end of past housing slumps.

• Paulson’s pluck
  September 11, 2008
  The Economist
  In a paper presented at the Brookings Institution, Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs predicts that house prices will fall by a further 10% and that overall mortgage-related losses will eventually reach $636 billion.

• Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn Speech
  September 11, 2008
  Federal Reserve Board
  Vice Chairman Donald Kohn’s discussion remarks on the panel papers presented in the fall 2008 Brookings Panel on Economic Activity.

• Chairman Bernake Delivers Remarks at Harvard University
  June 4, 2008
  The Washington Post
  In Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke speech at Harvard University he cited a 2007 BPEA paper "Explaining a Productive Decade" by Stephen Oliner, Daniel Sichel, and Kevin Stiroh.

• The Free-Trade Paradox
  May 26, 2008
  The New Yorker
  James Surowiecki's The Financial Page article about free trade with China cites Paul Krugman's findings in his recent BPEA paper on Trade and Wages.

• WORLD ACCORDING TO...ROBERT SHILLER
  May 2, 2008
  Conde Nast Portfolio
  In Llyod Grove's interview, Robert Shiller talks about a BPEA paper he published in 2003 entitled "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?"

• Urban policy expert says city's future depends on investment in its people
  May 1, 2008
  The Buffalo News
  Using his findings from his BPEA paper, Edward Glaeser gave a keynote address in Buffalo on the city’s chances for success in the future.

• Krugman's conundrum
  April 17, 2008
  The Economist
  In the Economics focus Paul Krugman's BPEA paper is the topic of the elusive link between trade and wage inequality.

• Money and Happiness
  April 10, 2008
  Les Echoes & Truth Out
  BPEA discussant Helene Rey writes about gross national happiness in Europe countries, citing the Stevenson/Wolfers paper that found a robust and positive correlation between income per person and happiness.

• Money can buy you happiness, say researcher
  April 4, 2008
  The Financial Times
  In this article, the BPEA paper by Betsy Stevenson and Justin Wolfers is reviewed with comments from Richard Easterlin and Gary Becker.

• Cities, Skills and LSCs
  March 25, 2008
  eGov Monitor
  Edward Glaeser’s BPEA paper is cited for pointing out that the highly skilled cities are more able to weather economic change.

• Ferguson on Iraq – ‘credibility lost’ is Hard
  March 19, 2008
  Channel 4 News, UK
  Citing the findings in his paper “Earning from History? Financial Markets and the Approach of World Wars”, Historian Niall Ferguson gives his verdict on the legacy of the Iraq war, as part of a series of viewpoints from social and political voices.

• Math is Hard
  March 4, 2008
  The Atlantic.com
  Blogger Matthew Yglesias of The Atlantic discusses Paul Krugman’s BPEA paper on Trade and Wages.

• Paul Krugman on Trade and Wages
  March 2, 2008
  Marginal Revolution Blog
  The Marginal Revolution blog discusses Paul Krugman’s BPEA paper on Trade and Wages.

• How Large is the Depressing Effect of Increased Trade on the Wages of Blue-Collar Americans?
  March 1, 2008
  Brad DeLong’s Blog
  Brad DeLong of the University of California, Berkeley discusses Paul Krugman’s BPEA paper on Trade and Wages.

• Paul Krugman: Trade and Wages, Reconsidered
  February 29, 2008
  Economist's View
  Paul Krugman’s BPEA paper is the topic of this blog entry.

• Politicians, Places, and Bad Policies
  February 1, 2008
  The Boston Globe
  Drawing from his BPEA paper, Edward Glaeser writes about place-making policies in this op-ed piece for the Boston Globe.

• Stimulus Unlikely to Counter Rise in Oil Prices
  January 11, 2008
  The Washington Post
  William Nordhaus, who wrote Who's Afraid of a Big Bad Oil Shock? for BPEA, is quoted at length in reference to oil prices.

• The Economics of Happiness
  January 10, 2008
  Gallup Management Journal
  Gallup recently held a conference on its findings from an international survey on quality of life and happiness. Alan Krueger, who wrote Are We Having More Fun Yet? for BPEA, explained his findings as the event's keynote speaker.

• The Happiness Quotient: Do High Expectations and Plethora of Choices Make Modern Women Miserable?
  December 30, 2007
  The San Francisco Chronicle
  Alan Krueger, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers are cited in this article on happiness and gender differences.

• Trade Trends
  December 21, 2007
  The New York Times: Paul Krugman's Blog
  Paul Krugman describes findings from his upcoming BPEA paper.

• Shock Treatment
  November 15, 2007
  The Economist
  This full-page story about oil and the economy cites William Nordhaus's BPEA paper Who's Afraid of a Big Bad Oil Shock?

• He's Happier, She's Less So
  September 26, 2007
  The New York Times
  David Leonhardt's column references Alan Krueger's BPEA paper Are We Having More Fun Yet? Categorizing and Evaluating Changes in Time Allocation.

• The League Table of Economists
  September 12, 2007
  The Wall Street Journal: Real Time Economics
  Economists at the September 2007 BPEA Conference dinner learned where they ranked against the most prolific authors and discussants in BPEA's history.

• In Which Those Troublesome "Black Swans" Find a Champion in Economics
  September 9, 2007
  Economicprincipals.com
  Retiring BPEA editors George Perry and Bill Brainard are remembered as having managed one of the most successful publishing ventures in economics.

• Three Cheers for Two Economists
  September 9, 2007
  The Washington Post
  Steve Pearlstein writes about the accomplishments of retiring BPEA editors George Perry and Bill Brainard, notes the new editors Doug Elmendorf, Greg Mankiw, and Lawrence Summers, and remarks on the BPEA alumni who attended the September conference, including Alan Greenspan and three Nobel Prize winners.

• Greenspan on Euphoria, Bubbles and Fear
  September 7, 2007
  The Wall Street Journal
  Alan Greenspan gives remarks at the dinner for George Perry and Bill Brainard in celebration of their careers as editors of the BPEA.