Transcript
DAN BYMAN: When Ken and I began this work, it was actually a little over a year ago and we were very troubled, needless to say, by the situation in Iraq. But we were also troubled by what we felt was a rather stale and uncreative debate on the options for where the United States should go. It seemed to be divided between those arguing for staying the course at the time, now perhaps a surge, and those saying get out or get out very soon. Needless to say, for any complex policy issue there should be a range of options.
Ken and I tried to look for an option that we felt avoided the worst of both extremes. We were very concerned that staying the course was having a series of disastrous effects, but on the other hand we were troubled by the idea of getting out because we believe, as we will argue here, that the cost for the United States and for the region are considerable. What we have tried to come up with is something that is somewhat in the middle, if you will, a containment strategy. It is far from perfect, but we believe compared to the alternatives, it has a lot to offer.
Our basic core argument I believe will not surprise many people here who have been following the debate. One point, and a very important one, that for all of our problems in Iraq, our problems are going to be also troubling in the region, that we cannot simply confine this to Iraq the way it stands now; that it is shaking the Persian Gulf region, shaking Iraq's neighbors, and perhaps is going to have effects beyond the region.
Also, the troubles we are experiencing in Iraq are going to be having such a profound effect that U.S. policymakers of any party of any administration are going to be dealing with this we believe for at least the next 10 years perhaps, and will be the primary driver of U.S. policy in the region whether we like it or not.
The third point is, as a result the United States simply will not be able to walk away from Iraq, that the end actions with regard to troops might be to draw down, but abandoning Iraq is not going to be an option, and a lot of what we are going to talk about today are ways we feel we can stay engaged more effectively in the situation in Iraq. I am going to talk about Iraq today and how spillover from Iraq may affect the region, and then I am going to pass it over to Ken to discuss various ways we can hopefully manage the spillover.
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