2010
January 2010
Despite the implementation of the pioneering ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement on January 1, 2010, East Asia still lacks a concrete vision for institutional economic integration. Former CNAPS Visiting Fellow Naoko Munakata writes that the ACFTA is the first of a series of agreements that will move forward together and eventually establish a framework for the region.
2009
December 2009
Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has announced targeted cuts in greenhouse gas emissions that place Japan far ahead of other developed countries at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The challenge for Hatoyama and his party after COP15, according to George Washington University Professor Llewelyn Hughes, will be to maintain domestic consensus amid far-reaching government reform and rising costs to industries and consumers.
November 2009
As President Obama prepared for his first visit to China, expectations were high for growth in the U.S.-China relationship. In this Northeast Asia Commentary written prior to the president's visit, Nonresident Senior Fellow David Shambaugh analyzes today’s political and economic landscape in China. Shambaugh currently serves as a Senior Visiting Fulbright Scholar at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, a division of the China Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.
October 2009
Since its peaceful Democratic Revolution in the early 1990s, Mongolia’s national security strategy has evolved through three phases and is now entering a fourth. Munkh-Ochir Dorjjugder writes that the theme of balancing external actors to ensure sovereignty and security remains the same, but that Mongolia is now adding economic and human elements to its approach to security.
September 2009
Japan’s August 30 general election, in which the long ruling Liberal Democratic Party was swept from power by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), was a watershed event in that nation’s post-War history, writes CNAPS Visiting Fellow Shoichi Itoh. Will the DPJ’s victory lead to substantial changes in Japan’s policy-making process and outcomes?
June 2009
Iraq and Afghanistan continue to pre-occupy U.S. military planners. But North Korea, with its growing nuclear arsenal, would become America's paramount security challenge if the state were to collapse. Michael O’Hanlon writes that the United States and other nations must begin detailed and coordinated planning for stabilization in the event of collapse of the North Korean state.
May 2009
Jacques deLisle of the University of Pennsylvania argues that Taiwan’s participation at the 62nd World Health Assembly this month marks a significant development in Taiwan’s quest for international space, in cross-Strait relations, and for the World Health Organization. Implications for Taiwan’s participation in other organizations may be limited, Professor deLisle writes, but this achievement could become an important template for future developments.
April 2009
Though China’s economy is continuing to grow, the global economic crisis is contributing to rising unemployment there and increasing the potential for instability. Former CNAPS Visiting Fellow Ray Yep writes that the Chinese government is unlikely to heed calls for political reform in this climate, but will seek to soothe the discontented by economic means.
March 2009
In the year since his election, Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou has improved Taiwan’s economic relations with China, with the goal of improving both Taiwan’s economic health and cross-strait relations. Rupert Hammond-Chambers writes that the United States must seize this opportunity and deepen its economic engagement with Taiwan, for the sake of its own economic interests and for long-term cross-strait development.
February 2009
Little attention has been given to the impact of the economic crisis on China’s national defense, or to its potential impact on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA). In this Brookings Northeast Asia Commentary, Kristen Gunness examines the effects of the economic environment on the PLA in three particular areas: the defense budget, domestic unrest, and civil-military relations.
January 2009
CNAPS Director Richard Bush argues that American soft power in East Asia is diminished but not exhausted. Our postwar record, the goodwill of friends in the region and the special character of the 2008 presidential election create a basis on which to restore it. This is a strategic opportunity that should not be missed, says Bush.
2008
December 2008
December 10 marks the 60th anniversary of the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights by the United Nations General Assembly. Catharin Dalpino writes that the Obama administration will face unprecedented challenges in the promotion of human rights in Asia, but is also likely to find new opportunities and should adopt a fresh approach.
November 2008
As leaders from around the Asia-Pacific gather in Peru for the APEC summit on November 22-23, former CNAPS Visiting Fellow Richard Weixing Hu writes in the Brookings Northeast Asia Commentary that APEC’s relevance could be jeopardized by its hollow dialogue agendas and competition from the growing number of regional community building projects.
October 2008
Though North Korea receives far more attention in the media, South Korea – a major trading partner and military ally – is far more important to the United States. As defense leaders from the United States and South Korea meet for the 40th annual Security Consultative Meeting, Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Kongdan Oh writes that Washington and Seoul must recast their alliance.
September 2008
Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda’s abrupt resignation on September 1 illustrated continuing instability in Japanese politics, and may help force his Liberal Democratic Party to lose control of the government. Keiko Iizuka writes that a new government could encourage debate and enact policies that will place severe strain on the Japan-U.S. alliance.
June 2008
In this Brookings Northeast Asia Commentary, Nonresident Senior Fellow Roberta Cohen calls for the development of performance standards for addressing natural disasters including the cyclone in Burma, earthquake in China, and famine in North Korea. Without such standards, states and the international community may be hampered in saving lives and reconstruction efforts.
May 2008
Taiwan will inaugurate its new president, Ma Ying-jeou, on May 20, providing a strategic opportunity to transform relations between Taiwan and China. CNAPS Director Richard Bush argues that such a transformation will yield an important reduction of mutual fear and suspicion. There are obstacles, but courage should trump caution in Taipei and especially in Beijing.
April 2008
As Russia’s global influence has risen in recent years, its policies toward East and Southeast Asia have become reanimated. In this Brookings Northeast Asia Commentary, Russian scholar Vladimir Kolotov outlines the evolving strategic landscape in East Asia, highlighting the crucial position occupied by Vietnam, and explores Russia’s priorities for the region under President-elect Dmitry Medvedev.
March 2008
China and the United States share the challenges of sustaining economic growth and affordable energy, but their joint efforts have achieved little beyond understanding each other’s positions on various energy issues. CNAPS Visiting Fellow Richard Weixing Hu argues that dialogues should include more substantive discussion on energy cooperation by addressing strategic anxieties, energy efficiency and the price of oil.
February 2008
On February 25, Lee Myung-bak will be inaugurated as the tenth president of the Republic of Korea. President Lee will have to reach across party and social lines to manage challenges in the economy, relations with the United States and other foreign powers, inter-Korean engagement, and—not least—South Korea’s uncertain political environment.
January 2008
At the start of 2008, most Americans are transfixed by the least predictable primary season for the U.S. presidency in memory. Japan too is likely to hold an election in 2008, and it will almost certainly be shaped by and in turn affect security issues, including the important U.S.-Japan alliance.
2007
December 2007
Seventy years ago the Japanese Imperial Army seized Nanjing and killed Chinese soldiers and civilians on a scale that will never be known. Richard Bush demonstrates how defective decision-making processes helped lead to the conflict that created the conditions in which the Nanjing Massacre and other atrocities took place.
November 2007
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 17th Congress, which convened from October 15-21, resulted in a series of delicate personnel and policy balances struck among the new leadership. Indeed, the selection/election of the most senior leaders themselves—comprising the Politburo, its Standing Committee and Secretariat, and Central Military Commission—reflects careful compromises among institutional and factional interests.
October 2007
Mongolia has emerged as a vibrant—though complicated—democracy which now appears worthy of international attention, investment, and support. Mongolian President N. Enkhbayar’s recent American visit calls attention to the growing closeness in US..-Mongolian relations. Mongolia’s peacekeeping support in Iraq is an important example of this improving relationship.
September 2007
With the outcome of the Doha trade talks uncertain, Myron Brilliant of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce argues that America should seek an "insurance policy" by proposing an Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area. He also urges the United States to take other steps to expand trade with the region.
June 2007
In March 2008 Taiwan will hold its fourth direct presidential election. Although the election is still nine months away the campaign for nomination is well over two years old. By late May 2007, the nomination process for the two main parties was completed. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will be represented by former premier and Kaohsiung mayor, Frank Hsieh, while the Kuomintang (KMT) has nominated former party chairman and Taipei mayor Ma Ying-jeou.
May 2007
While the relationship between China and Europe has developed remarkably quickly and broadly since 1995, it now seems that the relationship may be passing from the "honeymoon" phase into the "marriage" phase. Both parties are beginning to realize the complexities of the relationship, the fact that they do not see many issues identically, that outside factors and actors contribute to shaping the relationship - that mutual areas of common interest and cooperation remain substantial and dominant.
April 2007
In March, Hong Kong caught election fever. Newspapers reported day after day on the campaign for Chief Executive, in which the two contenders were the incumbent, Donald Tsang, and his challenger, legislator Alan Leong, a prominent lawyer and former chairman of the Hong Kong Bar Association. Millions of people watched the two men debating on television - twice - the first such debates in Hong Kong history.
March 2007
From the time protests in China began attracting our attention in the late 1990s, foreign observers have wondered how great a challenge they could constitute to the regime, and how effectively the regime would cope. Do the protests represent yet another temporary cycle of popular political activism that will fade? Or will they continue, but merely as a chronic nuisance to Beijing? Or do they represent a fundamental and more or less permanent shift to a more combative political culture in China that could emerge as a major threat to the stability of the regime?
February 2007
The second annual East Asia Summit (EAS) concluded on January 15, 2007. In this Commentary, CNAPS Visiting Fellow Chu Shulong identifies the forum's strong points and the challenges it must overcome in order to become a productive multilateral organization.
January 2007
Last October, North Korea detonated a nuclear device despite strong opposition from all neighboring countries and the United States. Pessimists concluded that North Korea would not give up the nuclear weapons it already possesses any time soon, if ever. Even optimists agreed that finding the right package of incentives to induce Pyongyang to disarm and dismantle its nuclear programs had just gotten more difficult.
2006
December 2006
The implications of the Democratic victory in the November 7 congressional election for U.S. policy in Asia seem serious. Economic issues with China, negotiating approaches toward North Korea, as well as human rights and environmental initiatives, add to anticipated complications in U.S. relations with Asia. However, factors of power, priorities, politics, and personalities dilute the push for substantial change in U.S. policy in Asia.
November 2006
For two governments that fought each other in a long, bitter war, the steady improvement in U.S.-Vietnam relations in recent years has been a remarkable development. At a time when America's relations with some old friends are strained, our friendly ties with this old enemy must seem surprising to many people.
October 2006
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi could not have picked a better time to step aside. He was so successful in last year's election that his party has nowhere to go but down. Moreover, Koizumi's strategy involved attacking the party's political machine, one foundation of its long-term rule. Hence the victory may actually leave the LDP more vulnerable to a future loss of power.
September 2006
On September 14th, the presidents of the United States and the Republic of Korea - George W. Bush and Roh Moo-hyun - will meet at the White House for their latest, and perhaps last, summit. This is President Roh's third visit to the United States as president and his sixth summit with President Bush. Their meeting occurs at a critical time in Northeast Asia and in the U.S.-ROK alliance.