Summer 2004 —
Reproduced by permission of The National Interest, (No.76, Summer 2004).
And here, the news appears to be bad. More Americans have died in Iraq in the six months from November 1, 2003 through April 30, 2004 (371 in total) than in the preceding eight. April 2004 was deadlier for American forces than even the invasion months of March and April 2003. And death totals among Iraqi security personnel have been roughly comparable in number.
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Is there any good news at all? Thankfully, the answer is yes. It is not enough to counter the above, and does not change the overall story that Iraq has gone much worse in recent months than expected. The only dependable ways to turn around these numbers are to complete a successful political transition process in Iraq this summer, autumn and upcoming winter; to employ the huge numbers of Iraqis now unemployed; and to dispel the impression among most Iraqis that the country's towns and villages are ungoverned and unsecured. We wrote last winter that "If this mission does eventually show signs of failure, we must react and adjust our policies promptly, because failure in Iraq is not an option." The United States has already taken too long to make progress on most of these matters. The next few months will be critical for whatever remaining prospects for success we still possess.